Careful what you wish for …

The Republican Party is dead.

That’s something a lot of Democrats and the left have dreamed of for decades.  It’s something I also believe they will regret in the years to come.

The Republican Party essentially committed suicide. For years Republican Party leaders have whined about not having enough control of the House, Senate and Oval Office to put through their agenda. If only Americans elected more Republicans, great things would happen. 

Well, Americans elected more Republicans to the House and Senate. They even elected a nominal “Republican” as President.

And the result has been nada, zip, zed, bupkis.

Republicans can’t seem to accomplish anything. They can’t repeal ObamaCare. They can’t push through meaningful tax reform. They don’t have a plan to reduce deficits or cut wasteful spending. They haven’t dealt with the skyrocketing cost of entitlements. They appear unable to fulfill any of their other promises, too, even though they have controlling majorities in both houses of Congress and the Presidency as well. 

They’ve entirely missed the point of the last election. Voters wanted real change. Voters wanted ObamaCare to be killed and insurance premiums to come down.  Voters wanted tax reform. Voters wanted deficits cut and wasteful spending curtailed. Voters wanted to tighten the rules on who gets entitlements and to stop rewarding able-bodied people who could work but won’t.  And voters wanted to stop or at least slow down illegal immigration.

So far Republicans have delivered on none of these. If anything, elected Republicans in Congress have proved entirely incapable of passing any legislation of note. Oh, there are many reasons for this, but the bottom line is this: they have failed to deliver on any of their promises. 

It would be easy to blame Trump for their legislative impotence. Yet the truth is only Trump seems to be focused on delivering on his campaign pledges. The party that should be backing him lacks the spine, or perhaps even the political savvy, to do what voters demanded. 

Republican incumbents in Congress will be punished for this. Harshly, I suspect. Trump will remember all those who waffled on his agenda, and especially those who fought it. I fully expect him to support primary opponents of anyone who stood in his way.  And it would be wise for everyone to remember that Trump won last time by running against the Washington establishment, and the Republican Party poohbahs in particular.     

He’ll remind voters of what they wanted. He’ll point out who was too afraid to stand up and be counted when push came to shove. He won’t care what Republican Party leaders want; he’ll only care about electing people who will back his agenda, which might even include some Democrats or Independents. At the same time, he’ll put the fear of terrible consequences in other Republican incumbents up for re-election after this cycle.

Yes, that’s bullying. But voters put him into office to bully the weak and force the wishy-washy, go-along-to-get-along Washington lifers to get with the program. 

Voters have tried to send a message to Washington through successive elections in recent years. Voters want real change. Voters don’t want a continuation of liberal and “compassionate conservatism” policies anymore – they want heads to roll in the bureaucracy, deadbeats and fraudsters to stop fleecing taxpayers, real immigration enforcement, and people in government to finally act more on the behalf of the legal citizens than themselves or special interests.   

Democrats misread the voting public’s disapproval of what Republicans in the House and Senate are doing – or, actually, what they haven’t been able to do – as a golden opportunity to put more Democrats in office and regain control.

They are hearing the wrong message. 

Voters dislike Congress – both Republicans and Democrats – and the inability of Congress to get anything useful done. It’s not about the two parties; it’s about the way Congress operates, seemingly oblivious to what the average American voter really cares about. Voters now are so thoroughly disgusted with the antics of those in Congress from both parties that Congress’ approval rating hovers around 20%, with about 74% disapproving of the current Congress.         

The media like to constantly point out Trump’s low approval rating. But at 37% approval of his performance, even after all his missteps, Trump’s a rock star compared to Congress.  Plus, he’s still got three more years in office ahead to turn things around. The media and Democrats’ constant attacks on Trump are so hyperbolic and frenzied these may boomerang over time and ultimately may make him a more sympathetic figure. It’s happened before. 

Trump aside, with Congressional Republicans in disarray Democrats are clearly salivating over the 2018 House and Senate elections.

They shouldn’t. Voters dislike them as much as Republicans.  And as the recent special elections should have demonstrated, simply being a Democrat opposed to Trump isn’t enough. 

If things continue as they are, I expect another wave election in 2018.

I expect Democrats to lose more seats in each chamber. I also expect some incumbent Republicans to lose seats in both chambers as well. 

How is that possible?  Quite simply, I expect some incumbent Republicans to be primaried out of running by more conservative, and more aggressive challengers only nominally affiliated with the Republican Party, much like Trump.  Many of these new challengers will go on to win in the general election against increasingly left-leaning Democrats. I also expect some Senate Democrats in states Trump won handily to lose to more Trump-like challengers this time around.

So “Republicans” will likely maintain control of the House and Senate but with some new faces in the seats their more timid predecessors once held. The newcomers will likely be less tolerant of business as usual, or even House and Senate “traditions,” but also more focused on getting meaningful things done quickly than those from the old Republican Party.

And that will spell the end of the Republican Party as we’ve known it. 

If Democrats hate the Republican Party now, just wait until they have to deal with what comes after it’s gone.  What comes next will be far less pliable. Far less interested in “reaching across the aisle.” Far less interested in making deals with moderate Republicans, much less Democrats. 

And if Republican and Democrat Party leaders don’t get the message voters have been trying to send in recent elections, I think this trend will continue on through 2020 and beyond, until voters have put as many of the Republican and Democrat establishment as possible out to pasture.