That’s Iran. That’s North Korea.
That’s also Russia.
Which one is the bigger threat? That all depends on who you talk to.
For my money, it’s a toss-up between Iran and North Korea.
Iran is a theocracy run by mullahs espousing a religion
which in its most extreme forms has all the hallmarks of a death cult. There
aren’t a lot of other world religions that reward those who die while killing
non-believers – including women and children – with an express ticket to
Paradise. Plus, the leadership takes
every opportunity to proclaim “Death to America,” even while negotiating with our diplomats over slowing Iran’s nuclear weapons
program.
Did that ever give Barack Obama or John Kerry pause? Nope, not for a minute. What could possibly
go wrong with that?
North Korea is a dynastic dictatorship with a near-religious
worship of the Kim family (Koreans put family names first), including the
current ruler Kim Jong-un. The Kim family has maintained control over North
Korea for many decades now, living quite luxuriously while the population –
except for the military – starves. North Korea does have a huge army, masses of
artillery on its southern border with South Korea within striking distance of
Seoul, and is developing and testing not just nuclear weapons but also the
means to deliver these on new generations of missiles.
Like Iran, North Korea hates us and everything we stand for.
For decades diplomats around the world including our own have tried to convince North
Korea to tone it down a tad. They tried bribing North Korea with food, fuel,
economic assistance, and foreign investment. None of this ever worked. Also
like Iran, North Korea has the same death-cult mentality. However, in the North
Korean leadership’s view it’s better for all North Koreans to die if they can
take out everyone else in the process.
At least the Iranian extremists have a goal – unite the
world’s Muslims to establish a global theocracy governed by Sharia law. I don’t think anyone is sure what the North
Koreans want as an end game. I don’t know if even Kim Jong-un does.
Both Iran and North Korea are irrational to many of us. And
scary.
But to Democrats and Republicans like John McCain and
Lindsey Graham, and of course our media, Russia is now the real threat to us.
There’s no doubt that Russia is a geopolitical
rival. Then again, so is China. Yet I
can’t remember either one of those – since Khrushchev and the passing of Mao –
ever threatening to annihilate us. Iran
and North Korea do that all the time. And they are both developing the
means.
It wouldn’t be in the economic self-interest of either
Russia or China to start a war with us. Their
respective leaders may be duplicitous and conniving – most world leaders are –
but they aren’t crazy. Also, both countries lost millions of people in WWII
alone and aren’t willing to lose millions more in what would surely be an
all-out nuclear holocaust for little if any gain.
Iran and North Korea, on the other hand, seem to welcome a
war; Iran expects to survive with help from Allah, while North Korea doesn’t
seem to care if anyone survives.
So why the recent obsession with Russia?
Well, the Russians are well-documented weasels. They have a
lot of conventional weapons, a big army, and huge stockpiles of nuclear
weapons, which make them dangerous, but not really our equal militarily for a
variety of reasons. The Russians realize that.
So instead of getting into a head-to-head military face-off
with us even with conventional forces, they tend to focus on stealth and
misdirection to accomplish their objectives. That’s how they got Crimea, pretending they
weren’t involved when they actually were, behind the scenes.
They’ve become very good at using disinformation,
cyberattacks, and subterfuge to confuse and disorient their adversaries to
achieve their strategic objectives. That’s much less expensive, in manpower and
resources, than using troops, tanks and artillery to get what they want. That’s
important because the Russians really don’t have the money to go all out in
traditional warfare.
It’s actually pretty smart. And they don’t have a lot of
alternatives.
Their army may be big, but it’s not very good, very well
equipped, or very well trained. Or even
that highly motivated. The same goes for
their air and sea forces. About half their
armed forces are comprised of poorly paid conscripts serving 12-month service
obligations; that’s not a great way to establish a professional military. We
know from our own experience.
Russian specialized units – such as Spetsnaz – are on par
with similar units in other parts of the Western world, but the rank and file
members of the rest of its armed forces aren’t.
The current – and probably for the foreseeable future – leader
is Vladimir Putin, who rose through the ranks of the KGB to lead post-Soviet
Russia. Putin has made no secret of his
desire to reassemble the Soviet Union. He’s moved on parts of the Ukraine,
annexed Crimea, and used Russia’s oil and gas exports to intimidate parts of
the old Soviet Union.
He’s not a good guy. Again, most world leaders aren’t. But
he is smarter than most. He knows how to game international politics and
leverage the power he has like few others.
Nobody should trust him or his word about anything. Or doubt
his resolve to maintain and build power. His political enemies inside Russia go
to jail, or get killed. Protestors and journalists get beaten or sometimes
disappear altogether. He’s a de facto dictator, albeit popularly elected.
The majority of Russians love him. His popularity there is
off the charts. He’s making a lot of Russians proud by standing up to the rest
of the world and – in the eyes of many in Russia – reclaiming the role the old
Soviet Union had as a world power to be reckoned with.
Still, he leads a country that continues to be a third-world
nation with a big army. They make and sell pretty good weapons systems and
produce a lot of oil and gas, but that’s about it. There’s not much else to
their economy beyond that.
Maybe that’s why Barack Obama laughed off Mitt Romney’s
assertion that Russia was our biggest geopolitical threat today. Since the fall
of the Soviet Union in the 1980s Democrats didn’t see Russia as a big deal. Even before then, they often ridiculed Reagan for his focus on the Soviet Union as part of the "evil empire."
Now, of course, it’s an entirely different matter.
Why? Because Democrats need a scapegoat – a pure evil boogie
man – to blame for their historic losses in the last election and the easiest
play is to blame Putin and the Russians.
After all, didn’t Trump say he wanted better relations with Russia? And
that he admired Putin? Then there was Trump’s joke – or was it? – that if the
Russians could find Hillary’s 30,000 missing e-mails he’d appreciate it.
Democrats and the media are in a frenzy about all things
Russian.
That’s helping take the focus off bigger threats, I believe.
Okay, so maybe the Russians actually did hack the DNC and released e-mails from that hack to
WikiLeaks.
To which I say: So what?
Compared to real existential threats from a nuclear Iran and
North Korea – two looney-tune countries who openly want to destroy us – Russia is
mouse nuts.
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