Cuba – that poverty-stricken island where 1950’s cars still
rule the road – says it’s “willing” to normalize relations with the U.S. How nice that they are "willing" at last.
But it has some conditions.
It wants our trade embargo lifted. It wants us to remove
Cuba from our list of state sponsors of terrorism. It wants hundreds of
millions of dollars for economic damage it’s suffered over the years from
our embargo. It wants us to turn
over our naval base at Guantanamo Bay to them.
That’s for starters.
I am at once reminded of the immortal words of Dick Cheney to
Patrick Leahy.
As laughable as the Cuban demands are, the sad part is that they
could get everything they ask for from the Obama Administration.
I’m sure Obama is meeting with his people and giving these demands
serious consideration.
I don’t know what the attraction to Cuba is. Apparently
there’s something there Obama and the Democrats want, and badly. Maybe it’s the
appeal of sun-kissed beaches and mojitos served by attractive young men and
women speaking only Spanish. Or access to Cuban cigars.
If that’s all it is, just go to Miami.
No, there’s something else at stake. Obama is desperate for some kind of diplomatic
success. He also wants to do something
to help nail down the Hispanic vote for Democrats, especially in Florida. Plus,
he wants to get rid of Gitmo to fulfill at least one of his campaign promises
before his term is up.
It’s all about his “legacy.”
In other words, it’s all about him.
Again.
Doing this lopsided deal with Cuba – which is flat on its
ass economically and has nothing of merit to offer – doesn’t make any sense
otherwise.
When the Soviet Union fell, it was a huge hit to Cuba's economy. Suddenly, the artificial markets in Soviet bloc countries and
thumb-on-the-scale market dynamics ceased to exist for Cuba, which isn’t
resource rich or had that much of value to export anyway. Then Russia started withdrawing
troops and closing installations in Cuba, which took away another part of the
Cuban economy.
Now Cuba’s economy is reeling further from the drop in oil
prices. One of its few significant sources
of hard currency came from reselling nearly free Venezuelan oil from Chavez on
the open market. Now that prices are way down, so is the income. That leaves
Cuba in even worse straits, with few options for getting hard currency aside
from limited tourism from countries other than us, and remittances from Cubans
living abroad.
There are a lot of Cubans living abroad, and many in the
U.S. If you live in South Florida, you may have noticed a few.
In its glory “Socialist Paradise” days – when its Soviet
sponsors subsidized practically everything – the Cuban government exported doctors
and revolutionaries to hotspots around the world. During the same time, and
continuing today, far more Cubans have exported themselves without government permission,
and often at great personal peril, to escape the same Socialist Paradise.
I guess free universal healthcare and a free college education
aren’t enough of a draw when you have to wait on line for your ration of rice
and beans, and rely on a black market for anything else like a bit more cooking oil.
The result of such massive self-exporting is large populations
of Cuban émigrés and their descendants living outside of Cuba, but with
relatives still in Cuba. The remittances from their relatives are a lifeline for
many Cubans still unable or unwilling to leave, and a boost to the Cuban
economy.
Recently, Obama proposed lifting the limits on remittances to
Cuban relatives, and also relaxing travel bans on visiting Cuba. This was seen
as a nakedly political move to raise his popularity among Cuban-Americans. The net effect will be to put more money in
the Cuban economy.
Oh, and in return for all of this Obama has some really big
demands:
- Be nicer to political dissidents ...
- Maybe release some political prisoners ...
- Consider starting to move away from a one-party
political system.
Ouch. That’s really
going to be painful for the Cuban government. I’m sure the Castros are having a
good laugh at all that.
So, all that aside, let’s look at what really should be on
the table:
- Forget the hundreds of millions in compensation for
economic damage from our trade embargo – the Cuban government expropriated
private assets estimated at $6 billion in today’s dollar when it overthrew Battista; you really want to bring up compensation?
- Okay to lifting the trade embargo – Cuba gets
80% of its food from the U.S. already, but has to pay cash, and has nothing to
trade that we want …
- Okay to taking them off the list of state
sponsors of terrorism – they can’t afford to sponsor anyone right now, anyway …
- Giving back Gitmo? NFW. It’s our base, our property. Let us now quote Dick Cheney.
I realize Obama may be the worst negotiator as President
since Jimmy Carter – who gave away the Panama Canal to a drug-dealing dictator if
you remember. But even Obama – or someone in his administration – should see
that we should be negotiating from a position of strength, not from a position of
weakness.
We hold all the cards.
The Cubans have no cards. They have nothing to offer in return. We don’t need this deal, but they sure as
Hell do. It’s as near-perfect scenario
you could ever hope for.
Plus, we have an ace in the hole. We can walk away and just
wait. Time is definitely on our side. The
Castro brothers won’t live forever. When
they die – and they will – Cuba will change.
What scares me anytime Obama is involved in something like
this is that he doesn’t understand how to negotiate anything worthwhile. He
gives away the store every time.
He’s like a blind man playing poker with Gypsies.
It may one day be worthwhile to cut a deal with Cuba. I can’t
imagine why, or for what purpose, but it’s possible, I guess.
I just hope we’ll have a sharper player than Obama at the
table when and if that time comes.
Two more years, folks, two more years.
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