Tipping points ...

Public opinion and political movements move in cycles.

There’s usually a tipping point that sets off a new cycle.

Some person or group goes too far. A defining moment happens. It doesn’t have to be a single event; it can be a sequence of seemingly unrelated events that suddenly appear to be connected.

The tipping point is reached.  Public opinion can quickly and dramatically shift, often catching politicians, activists, and the media by surprise. The public doesn’t simply stop believing and supporting what it did; it starts moving in a completely opposite direction. 

It’s like Newton’s Third Law – for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. 

When the tipping point is reached heroes can become villains, villains can become heroes, and sympathies can reverse – all in what seems like the blink of an eye. 

The shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown, the death of Eric Garner, and to a lesser extent the shooting of a 12-year-old in Cleveland holding a toy gun, are seen as tipping points for black activists who have long maintained that our justice system places little value on black lives. They’ve used these to rally the black base, as well as young whites, and liberals in general, all of whom have a an ingrained distrust of authority in general, and the police in particular.   

At first blush it’s been very successful with lots of media coverage of crowds in the streets, die-ins at shopping malls, temporary shut-downs of major roadways, and symbolic gestures by sports celebrities.  Sharpton’s gotten a lot of on-camera face time.  Members of Congress have taken to the floor to do the “hands up, don’t shoot” pose, as have some anchors on cable news shows.  Basketball players have worn “I can’t breathe” shirts.  The Mayor of New York got into the act as well, claiming he had to teach his biracial son to be wary of police. 

Then it happened. Things went out of control. Protesters went too far. Protesting crowds attacked police officers, injuring some.  People at one of Sharpton’s rallies started chanting “What do we want?  Dead cops!  When do we want it? Now!”  

And someone took them at their word.  A dirt bag from Baltimore – who had just shot his girlfriend – boasted online about how he was going to kill cops.  Then he did, assassinating two innocent New York cops as they sat in their car, before killing himself. He probably thought he’d be a hero; after all, didn’t he do what protesters wanted?   

About 24 hours later a Florida cop was shot and killed by a suspect who was afraid he would be sent back to prison. 

A black Philly paramedic posted a still from a rap video at about the same time showing two black guys holding guns to the head of a white cop with the caption:  “Our real enemy...need 2 stop pointing guns at each other & at the ones that's legally killing innocents." 

Are all these events unrelated?  Perhaps. 

But there’s a synchronicity in these for many people, especially for those in law enforcement.

Cops believe activists as well as politicians are sending a signal that cops are the enemy. Cops can’t be trusted. Cops routinely target black males.  If you’re black and stopped by a cop you’re much more likely than a white guy to be arrested, beaten, or even killed by them.  

Add those messages to what comes out of the White House, and Holder at the DOJ – that the civil rights of blacks are often violated by police, and the justice system unfairly treats blacks more harshly than whites.  It’s no wonder that people in law enforcement feel threatened.  And why some more radical critics of the police feel emboldened.   

It’s also no wonder then why cops are less willing to take a chance when they feel their lives are in danger. That’s what happened in Ferguson and in Cleveland. 

So what happens now?      

Black activists like Sharpton and others think the tipping point has moved in their favor.  They believe they’ll be able to extract – or more accurately, extort – concessions from law enforcement and the justice system to give a special pass to blacks because, well, they’re black. They want the authority to oversee hiring, training, and enforcement policies of police forces. They want the ability to decide when and if any officer has used excessive force and how they should be punished. 

They think they have the “right” to demand these as retribution for recent events.  And that public opinion is now firmly on their side.

They are wrong. 

The mob they have created has moved ahead of them. It’s no longer theirs to control, nor is it listening to the “leaders” like Sharpton, de Blasio and others that helped spawn it.  Mayor de Blasio, trying to regain some credibility, had asked protesters to hold off at least until the funerals of the two dead cops were completed. They’ve ignored him. 

Protesters are still in the streets and assaulting cops as if nothing has changed.

Meanwhile, a lot changed.  The cold-blooded assassination of the two New York cops by a deranged black guy is still fresh in the public’s mind.  Another cop in Florida checking out a simple domestic disturbance was shot and killed by a career criminal. Cops in Philly were arresting a man for shooting out windows when he turned his gun them, pulling the trigger several times; fortunately, he was out of bullets.    

At one of the recent anti-cop protests, police tried to arrest a Brooklyn English professor who was attempting to throw a metal trash can on a road to block traffic.  A melee ensued, during which the professor – joined by other protesters – attacked the arresting officers, breaking the nose of one of the officers before fleeing.  He left behind the backpack he’d been carrying, in which police found three hammers and a ski mask.

None of this helps the “black lives matter” or “I can’t breathe” crowd intent on painting police everywhere as jackbooted thugs singling out black males for execution.    

The public perception of the whole situation is changing.  We are approaching another tipping point, but not the one black activists and anti-cop protesters think we’ve already hit.

This one’s the reactive tipping point. It’s what happens when the other side goes too far. 

It’s important to remember that the American public generally favors the police.  It believes in law and order; always has, and probably always will. It is appalled by wanton violence. Killing cops is a bright line to most Americans; juries that convict cop killers usually show little mercy.   

The media, activists, and certain politicians can spin things all they want, but down deep the overwhelming majority of Americans generally will side with the police and the courts.  They believe the police and the legal system aren’t perfect by any measure, but can be trusted to do the right thing in most cases. Polls tend to bear this out, year after year.

So it would take a monumental amount of evidence to overcome that.

Frankly, that evidence doesn’t exist. 

Tangible evidence of people targeting cops is equally scant, but far more powerful. Someone physically assaulting a cop deeply disturbs us. Anyone openly advocating or actually killing cops just because they’re cops goes way beyond that. They cross a far more emotional line – a cultural barrier, if you will, between anarchy and civilization. 

The public will always choose civilization and order over anarchy.  When the public feels things are getting out of control – hitting a tipping point – they will swing toward greater control.

It’s what happened when the anti-war movement went too far in the 60’s – blowing up buildings, calling our soldiers murderers, robbing banks, and rioting at the 1968 Democrat Convention in Chicago.  The anti-war movement felt it had gotten the attention of the nation. It had. The result was the election of Richard Nixon on a strict law-and-order platform, and his continuation of the Vietnam war.

In 1972, the anti-war movement became even more violent and strident and seized control of the Democrat Party.  They nominated George McGovern – their peace candidate – who promised to end the war even if he had to go to North Vietnam on his hands and knees.  Again, too much.  McGovern lost to Nixon in a landslide. 

That’s what tipping points are all about.    

You’ll notice that the big stories of anti-cop protests have fallen from the front pages of newspapers and the landing pages of online news networks recently.  The general public, much to the consternation of cop haters and the Sharptons and of the world, have already moved on to widespread sympathy, rather than isolated antipathy, toward police. 

This was always going to happen.  Sadly, it took the deaths of three officers, and attacks on others to move it forward.  But it was inevitable.   

RIP Officers Ramos, Liu, and Kondek.