“Not one of us …”

They aren’t saying this outright, but this is what’s really bothering the political establishment here and abroad about Trump and his cabinet picks. 

Career bureaucrats and politicians here are terrified that someone outside their realm may soon be running things. Everything they’ve believed in, everything they’ve been praised and rewarded for doing, may be subject to new scrutiny by people who have little in common with them. 

People who won’t appreciate the subtle “nuances” that make government work. People who don’t know or even care how the political game has always been played. People from the vulgar worlds of business and the military. People who don’t seem to respect the lofty tradition of, or requisite privileges attached to, “public service,” or the “sacrifices” public servants have made.    

The new people scare the crap out of them. There may be wholesale changes to their cushy little world. They may not find a sympathetic ear to whatever they want to do anymore. They may not be as insulated and protected.  Their hands may not just be tied, but their positions – and the prestige and power they’ve enjoyed – may be downgraded or even eliminated.  

It’s no wonder they’re worried sick.  It’s no wonder they and their allies in the media, the business world, the defense industry, the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, the poverty-industrial complex, and others in the current political establishment are upset. In fact, every entity dependent on maintaining the status quo is suddenly at risk.

Trump and his cabinet nominees could upend everything. Not just within the immense government bureaucracy, but in how it interacts with all the other power players dependent on friends nested in it for their livelihood. 

Until now, it really didn’t make much difference which party was in control. Not much changed when Democrats were in control, or when Republicans were in control.

Sure, there were publicized fights over policy issues – but that was mainly for public consumption and campaign fundraising videos. If you’ve noticed, most clips you see on the nightly news of rants from some Senator or Representative seem to be recorded before an empty chamber. You almost never see opponents arguing in real time.  Doesn’t that seem strange? 

It’s not once you realize that both the House and Senate are essentially private clubs, with lots of special perks and amenities for members. The same leaders from both parties have been running the show off and on for decades.  Everybody in those clubs realized their most important mission once they became a member was to stay in the club.  As such, almost every vote cast is designed to keep them there; usually by pandering to special interests that support and fund their re-election campaigns. 

Elected Republicans always squandered as much money as elected Democrats. Industry and special interest lobbyists were always welcome; pay-for-play remained firmly in place no matter who held the reins.  Defense contracts for weapons the military didn’t want or need kept getting funded. Massive cost overruns by contractors were criticized, but approved anyway. The pork barrel kept rolling, using taxpayer money to help incumbents get re-elected.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats ever really killed a worthless program, a redundant agency or department, or held the heads of failed bureaucracies accountable. Even bureaucrats found guilty of wrongdoing faced nothing worse than reassignment or early retirement. 

Consequently, to most bureaucrats and government-dependent businesses and organizations, elections didn’t really have consequences.  There might be some minor inconvenience in some power shifts, but these would be temporary. Then things would get back to business as usual. 

That’s because the players that should matter – like the types of people heading departments or agencies – rarely changed; some people moved up or retired comfortably when administrations changed but the core bureaucracy remained intact.

Instead of bringing in true outsiders, new administrations simply recycled the same long-serving bureaucrats and career politicians from previous administrations or agencies. 

The result was the supposed new blood was simply repackaged old blood, with the same old ideas, the same old perspective, and the same political instincts:  to manage the way those before them had always run things, rather than take a risk leading in a new direction. 

That gave great comfort to the political establishment. People they knew, people just like them – cautious, risk-averse people – kept the status quo. 

All that’s now in jeopardy. And the establishment is very worried. In many instances factions are attacking wherever possible to maintain the status quo that comforts them. That’s why you see Republicans as well as Democrats attacking Trump’s nominees and his plans. 

Some of this is because a few politicians, such as Rubio and McCain, are settling old scores.  But other party-line Republicans are frankly miffed that nobody asked their permission or blessing before Trump set out his nominees for key posts or put forth his plans. The Republican Establishment isn’t accustomed to being so publicly ignored by members of their own party when it comes to trade, immigration, taxes, spending, or national security.

For the first time in a very, very long time, elections really do have consequences.

 

When Trump won he defeated the Democrat Party, the Republican Party, and the media.  He won without the support of any of those three; as such he rightly feels he doesn’t owe them anything.  Nor does he owe anything to any of the traditional power brokers and big donors, especially those who poured nearly a billion dollars into defeating him.  He didn’t need their help to win, and he doesn’t need their support now as he goes forward with his own agenda.   

Since he won the first time without them, it’s reasonable he believes he can win a second term without them, again.  They don’t have the same leverage anymore.

It’s not enough that he’s nominating people that threaten the way things are in Washington, he’s also taken a shot to the heart of the political establishment – he’s in favor of a constitutional amendment to put in term limits on members of Congress, too. So he’s an equal opportunity monster – ready to overthrow the hallowed tradition of career politicians from either party.

That puts him at odds with the entire basis for political clout in Washington: seniority and the power seniority accrues and wields to remain in power. 

Nothing is sacred, it appears. 

The potential ripple effect throughout the entire political establishment and the government bureaucracy is unprecedented.  Their worst nightmare has come true – Trump’s someone who doesn’t owe anybody anything, who isn’t beholden to special interests, who can bypass the media filter and go directly to the public anytime he chooses, and who doesn’t give a damn what the political establishment here or abroad thinks of him or his ideas.

Someone entirely unlike them, in other words. 

Is this dangerous? In some ways yes.  However, it’s also refreshing. 

Now, I don’t underestimate the power of the vast government bureaucracy and political establishment to grind away at whatever Trump and his appointees plan to do. I fully expect both to try to sandbag him and his nominees – should they be confirmed – at every turn. I fully expect both to try to rein him in and show him that they – not him – are actually in control. 

They’ll try by whatever means necessary to humble him and make him play the game the way it’s always been played; the game they know so well. 

I don’t underestimate them at all. Nor should Trump. 

However, the powers that be will be making a grave mistake if they underestimate him. 

The public is tired of nuances. They are tired of bureaucrats operating in a vacuum, a Congress that doesn’t accomplish anything, and a government many feel is out of touch.

The public voted for real change, and Trump promised real change. He may come off as a bully in the bully pulpit, but his ability to connect with the public has changed everything.  He speaks bluntly in a language the public understands, he reflects their frustration at business as usual, he scorns politics as usual, and frankly, he doesn’t need this job – he’s got nothing to lose. 

His opponents in the political establishment and the media have underestimated him before. They would be wise not to repeat that mistake. He’s not a flash in the pan, merely a temporary annoyance before things get back to normal. He has the potential to have sweeping impact.  

They need to take him as seriously as a heart attack. 

His nominees for most key posts come from the business world and the military – highly successful leaders accustomed to running big organizations, streamlining those organizations, and holding the people under them accountable for tangible results. They aren’t career bureaucrats. They aren't a product of the bureaucracies they seek to lead.  

Trump will also have the opportunity to appoint at least one, and possibly up to three, Supreme Court Justices as well as many justices to the lower courts in his first term.

Finally, the political landscape favors Trump. More politicians from states that switched from Blue to Red in the last election, not just for Trump but down ballot as well will face voters again soon. So Congress may get even more Red, or those former Blue-state politicians now opposed to anything from Trump may have to start being a bit more accepting to keep their jobs.   

Everyone in Washington and the sprawling government bureaucracy worried about their future because Trump’s “not one of us” has good reason for concern. Their concerns that his nominees to key positions are “not one of us” are also valid.

Too bad.  They've had their chance, and failed too often. 

It's time to give new people a shot.